“在我国汽车工业70多年的发展历程中，现在是最好的时代，也是最艰苦的时代！”

　　北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院教授，盖世汽车智库技术顾问徐向阳在接受盖世汽车专访时，一语道出了当下所有汽车人的复杂心境。

　　徐向阳是我国自动变速箱领域的权威技术专家，主持开发了世界首款前置前驱8挡自动变速器（8AT）及其系列产品，打破国外垄断，并于2016年获得国家科技进步一等奖（第1完成人）。这是迄今为止中国汽车行业获得的第3个国家科技进步一等奖，也是汽车核心零部件获得的唯一的国家科技进步一等奖。

　　同时，徐向阳也向中国汽车产业发出了振聋发聩的警示：“国内所有的车企，要想生存下去，必须面向国际市场！”

　　目前，在全球车市新能源化浪潮中，插混车型跃升为市场新宠，而中国自主品牌也凭借这一细分领域的技术突破，在海外市场大放异彩。这一现象的背后，是中国车企通过十余年自主研发，已将混动技术从“跟跑”推向“全球领跑”的战略高地。此外，作为混动系统的“心脏”，混动变速器更在电动化与智能化的双重驱动下，经历着从“机械传动”到“智能动力中枢”的颠覆性蜕变。

　　要针对海市场开发插混车型

　　“如今，国内这么卷，出口海外这条道路，是车企必须要做的一道命题作文。”回望过去，徐向阳更是感慨：“我国目前的汽车技术水平、产品质量和性价比等，已完全具备全球竞争的能力。”

　　这一判断正在被市场数据印证。据中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据，今年上半年，我国汽车出口308.3万辆，同比增长10.4%，汽车产业活力持续释放。

　　对自主车企而言，“出海”有着至关重要的战略意义。当前，国内汽车市场容量逐渐饱和，海外市场为车企开辟了全新的增长空间与发展机遇，助力企业实现规模扩张，推动销量与营收的持续增长。

　　不过，从“走出去”到“走进去”的跨越并非坦途。随着我国汽车产业加速“出海”，技术路线的“全球化适配”成为破局关键。

　　盖世汽车研究院指出，今年上半年，我国乘用车出口依然保持两位数的同比增长，虽低于去年19.8%的增幅，但结构优化明显。从动力类型来看，燃油车出口仍有一定体量，但已不再是增长的主力。

　　此外，盖世汽车研究院的数据显示，今年上半年，中国新能源乘用车的出口占比从2024年的31%上升到42%。其中，纯电动乘用车出口59.3万辆，虽然高于插混车型，但同比增速仅为10%；相比之下，同期插电式混合动力乘用车出口呈现翻倍趋势，同比增幅高达165%，接替纯电动成为新一轮增长引擎。

　　因此，考虑到国外不同地区对动力系统、能源方式的需求不同，车企在进行技术路线选择时，考虑到目标市场的需求，需要兼顾国内和海外市场。

　　“车企在开拓海外市场的过程中，要注意到海外市场对车的需求跟国内的需求不太一样。”徐向阳表示，在这样的背景下，针对海外插混车型的开发，就显得非常有意义。

　　举例来看，在国内市场，以1.5T发动机为基础，搭配单档变速器和串并联混动架构（如P1+P3电机组合）方案是主流，强调纯电续航和燃油经济性。如荣威D5X(配置|询价) DMH的1.5T DMH系统，CLTC纯电续航达135km，亏电油耗仅4.62L/100km5。而欧洲用户常需拖挂房车或重型设备，要求混动系统在低速时提供高扭矩；德国不限速高速公路需车辆在180km/h以上仍保持动力输出，这些都在倒逼企业升级多档混动变速器。

　　混动技术，我国已经走在前列

　　整体来看，插混有技术、性能、满足用户市场需求、心理需求等优势。此外，插混在国内被划分到新能源领域，能够享受税收、政策、补贴、路权（除北京）等优惠。

　　徐向阳强调，“从技术的角度来讲，插混是把纯电驱动和内燃机技术结合得最好的一种方式。”他表示，插混车型的百公里加速时间、油耗等，都要明显优于传统燃油车。与纯电驱动相比，插混车型的加速时间略低一些，但完全够用。

　　据悉，从2000年前后，国内专用混动变速器技术、专用混动发动机技术和专用混动电池技术得到了快速发展。

　　“国内已经量产的专用混动发动机中，热效率已经超过46%。比如，荣威DMH高效混动专用发动机的热效率高达46.3%。”徐向阳强调，“目前国内混动技术不仅是进步了，并且已经做到了国际领先。特别是国内主打串并联的混动变速器，关键技术指标和性能均达到了国际先进水平。”

　　值得注意的是，在混动技术的全球竞速中，中国车企已从“技术追随者”跃升为“规则制定者”。目前，车企通过分场景、模块化的技术架构设计，让国内混动变速器不仅实现性能突破，更构建起差异化竞争壁垒。

　　以长城汽车来看，其混动技术路线以Hi4智能四驱电混技术体系为核心，针对不同车型和场景开发了多款技术分支，主要包括以下方向：Hi4智能四驱电混技术

　　比如，长城汽车核心混动技术Hi4通过发动机直驱模式优化中高速场景效率，相比增程式混动效率提升13%~20%。该技术体系包含五种细分版本：‌ Hi4 ‌为中型车专用、Hi4性能版为中大型车专用、Hi4-Z为泛越野车型专用如坦克500(配置|询价)Hi4-Z 、‌ Hi4-T‌为强越野车型专用、‌ Hi4-G ‌为重卡专用。

　　再如，吉利汽车通过“技术组合拳”策略构建全球化产品矩阵：其混动变速器既包含高效单档的方案，也有三档变速系统。为了精准匹配不同海外市场需求，后者更细分为两款差异化产品。

　　原因则在于，欧洲市场的用户对动力响应、高速巡航效率的要求更高，传统单档变速器难以满足其驾驶场景，三档混动系统通过多档位调节，可实现低速扭矩放大与高速油耗优化的双重优势，这成为吉利开拓欧洲市场的核心技术抓手。

　　展望多元技术路线未来的发展，徐向阳认为，“无论是插电混动、增程、HEV，混动本身是一个长期的技术路线，它会和纯电动长期并存。未来，从国内市场来看，大的趋势是混动（增程、HEV、PHEV）占比为40%，纯电动占比为40%，油车的市场份额为20%。”

　　同时，他更是强调，纯内燃机车也不会完全消失。汽车工业核心要低碳化，低碳燃料、零碳燃料也可以用内燃机，并且碳排放可以达到很低。

　　传统变速器转型，要看三个方向

　　随着全球汽车产业加速向新能源化、智能化方向演进，传动系统作为动力传输的关键载体，正发生深刻的技术变革。而变速器作为混动系统的核心部件之一，性能直接影响整车动力输出、能耗表现和驾驶体验，也正面临着新机遇与挑战。

　　“传动系统的智能化革命，核心在于控制。”徐向阳表示，如何根据车辆工况与行驶状态，动态选择最佳工作模式并精准规划SOC（电池荷电状态）与能耗策略，是变速器面向智能化的最大挑战。

　　在理想状态下，当车辆接入导航系统并确定行程路径后，可以利用智能化将“起点到终点”的宏观规划，转化为混动系统的微观执行策略。例如，插电混动车型需判断在城市拥堵路段优先启用纯电驱动以降低能耗，高速巡航时切换发动机直驱模式提升效率，爬坡或加速时则激活“发动机+电机”联合输出；下坡路段需根据坡度、车速动态调节制动能量回收强度，实现“电量高效回充”与“行车安全”的平衡。

　　因此，对于变速器的智能化，徐向阳提到了两个方面：一是变速器产品在技术结构上需进一步持续优化，如效率进一步提高等；二是变速器的智能能量管理策略，需要把驾驶员的驾驶风格、驾驶习惯相关的信息融合在一起，针对每一个用户去做能量管理策略，做个性化定制化开发，把混动系统的优势充分发挥下去。

　　“传统变速器企业对变速器构成、产品本身很了解，它们在创新，提升效率、优化结构、降低成本等领域有经验。”对于传统变速器企业未来的着力点，徐向阳强调，“变速器智能化的核心，需要和混动系统、发动机电驱，甚至整车一起综合考虑。”

　　比如，特别是对能量控制策略的制定，要与整车企业联合开发、从整个系统去考虑，才能达到最佳匹配。因此，整车企业也需要将大数据平台上的车辆使用情况等反馈到变速器企业，开放大量的用户数据，大家一起挖掘数据，寻找用户使用规律和习惯。

　　未来，变速器企业怎么才能与时俱进，跟上市场和技术变动节奏？徐向阳给出了三个方向：第一，要具备整车协同开发能力；第二，要培养人才，包括智能化、软件开发的人才、智能化控制策略算法的人才等；第三，要适应整车智能化的发展需求，在电动化、智能化方面补短板。

　　作为我国从汽车大国迈向汽车强国的亲历者与推动者，徐向阳又是如何看待当下这个汽车行业？

　　正如文章开头所言，“这是一个最好的时代也是最艰苦的时代”。那么，为何会发出如此感慨？

　　徐向阳表示，回望过去70多年发展，我国汽车产业已经在技术、人才、资金、制造能力等方面有了长足发展，在某些方面做到了局部领先，为汽车大国向汽车强国转变奠定了基石。新能源汽车产业，不仅有好的政策，庞大的市场，并且车企也都在积极拓展海外市场。

　　然而，这些年，汽车行业在发展过程中出现了不良竞争。内卷严重，企业很辛苦但赚钱不多，甚至赔钱，价格战更是一眼看不到头。这对行业持续、健康发展产生了负面影响。汽车行业的所有参与者，没有一个过得相对轻松，头部企业压力都很大，更不用说初创企业或新势力企业。

　　他认为，下一步，需要行业内大家共同努力，去寻找一个好的解决方案，使整个行业能够具备可持续、健康的发展，助推我国尽快成为汽车强国。

Will pure electricity account for about 40% in the future?
In the more than 70 years of development of China's automobile industry, now is the best era, but also the most difficult era

Xu Xiangyang, a professor at the School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, and a technical consultant at Gaishi Automotive Think Tank, expressed the complex emotions of all car enthusiasts in an interview with Gaishi Automotive.

Xu Xiangyang is an authoritative technical expert in the field of automatic transmissions in China. He has led the development of the world's first front wheel drive 8-speed automatic transmission (8AT) and its series of products, breaking foreign monopolies. In 2016, he won the first prize of National Science and Technology Progress Award (the first author). This is the third National Science and Technology Progress First Prize won by the Chinese automotive industry so far, and the only National Science and Technology Progress First Prize won by core automotive components.

At the same time, Xu Xiangyang also issued a resounding warning to the Chinese automotive industry: "All domestic car companies must face the international market in order to survive

At present, in the wave of new energy in the global automotive market, plug-in hybrid models have become the new favorite of the market, and Chinese domestic brands have also shone in overseas markets with technological breakthroughs in this niche field. Behind this phenomenon is that Chinese car companies, through more than a decade of independent research and development, have pushed hybrid technology from "following" to the strategic high ground of "global leadership". In addition, as the "heart" of hybrid systems, hybrid transmissions are undergoing a disruptive transformation from "mechanical transmission" to "intelligent power center" under the dual drive of electrification and intelligence.

To develop plug-in hybrid models for the offshore market

Nowadays, with so much competition in the domestic market, exporting overseas is a necessary proposition for car companies. Looking back, Xu Xiangyang sighed, "China's current level of automotive technology, product quality, and cost-effectiveness fully possess the ability to compete globally

This judgment is being confirmed by market data. According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of this year, China's automobile exports reached 3.083 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and the vitality of the automobile industry continued to be released.

For independent car companies, "going global" has crucial strategic significance. At present, the domestic automobile market capacity is gradually saturated, and overseas markets have opened up new growth space and development opportunities for automobile companies, helping them achieve scale expansion and promoting sustained growth in sales and revenue.
Image source: Chery Automobile Image source: Chery Automobile

However, the transition from 'going out' to 'going in' is not a smooth road. With the acceleration of China's automobile industry's "going global", the "global adaptation" of technological routes has become the key to breaking through.

Gaishi Automotive Research Institute pointed out that in the first half of this year, China's passenger car exports still maintained double-digit year-on-year growth, although lower than last year's 19.8% growth rate, the structural optimization was obvious. From the perspective of power types, the export of fuel vehicles still has a certain volume, but it is no longer the main driver of growth.

In addition, data from the Gaishi Automotive Research Institute shows that in the first half of this year, the proportion of China's exports of new energy passenger vehicles increased from 31% in 2024 to 42%. Among them, the export of pure electric passenger vehicles was 593000 units, although higher than plug-in hybrid models, the year-on-year growth rate was only 10%; In contrast, during the same period, the export of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles showed a doubling trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 165%, replacing pure electric vehicles as the new growth engine.
Image source: GAC Automotive Research Institute Image source: GAC Automotive Research Institute

Therefore, considering the different demands for power systems and energy sources in different regions abroad, car companies need to take into account the needs of the target market when choosing their technology routes, and balance both domestic and overseas markets.

In the process of exploring overseas markets, car companies should pay attention to the fact that the demand for cars in overseas markets is different from that in China. "Xu Xiangyang said that in this context, the development of plug-in hybrid models for overseas markets is very meaningful.

For example, in the domestic market, the mainstream solution is based on a 1.5T engine, paired with a single speed transmission and a series parallel hybrid architecture (such as a P1+P3 motor combination), emphasizing pure electric range and fuel economy. The 1.5T DMH system of the Roewe D5X (configuration | inquiry) DMH has a CLTC pure electric endurance of 135km and a fuel consumption of only 4.62L/100km5 due to power loss. European users often need to tow RVs or heavy equipment, requiring hybrid systems to provide high torque at low speeds; Germany's unlimited speed highways require vehicles to maintain power output above 180km/h, which is forcing companies to upgrade their multi speed hybrid transmissions.

Hybrid technology, China is already at the forefront

Overall, plug-in hybrids have advantages such as technology, performance, meeting user market demands, and psychological needs. In addition, plug-in hybrids are classified as part of the new energy sector in China and can enjoy tax, policy, subsidy, road rights (excluding Beijing) and other benefits.

Xu Xiangyang emphasized that "from a technical perspective, plug-in hybrid is the best way to combine pure electric drive and internal combustion engine technology." He said that plug-in hybrid models have significantly better acceleration time and fuel consumption than traditional fuel vehicles. Compared with pure electric drive, the acceleration time of plug-in hybrid models is slightly lower, but it is completely sufficient.

It is reported that since around 2000, domestic specialized hybrid transmission technology, specialized hybrid engine technology, and specialized hybrid battery technology have developed rapidly.

Among the specialized hybrid engines that have already been mass-produced in China, the thermal efficiency has exceeded 46%. For example, the Roewe DMH high-efficiency hybrid engine has a thermal efficiency as high as 46.3%. ”Xu Xiangyang emphasized, "At present, domestic hybrid technology has not only made progress, but has also achieved international leadership. Especially for the series parallel hybrid transmission, the key technical indicators and performance have reached the international advanced level

It is worth noting that in the global race of hybrid technology, Chinese car companies have risen from "technology followers" to "rule makers". At present, car companies have adopted overly scenario based and modular technology architecture design, which not only enables domestic hybrid transmissions to achieve performance breakthroughs, but also builds differentiated competitive barriers.
Image source: Great Wall Motors Image source: Great Wall Motors

From the perspective of Great Wall Motors, its hybrid technology roadmap is centered around the Hi4 intelligent four-wheel drive hybrid technology system, and has developed multiple technology branches for different vehicle models and scenarios, mainly including the following directions: Hi4 intelligent four-wheel drive hybrid technology

For example, Great Wall Motors' core hybrid technology Hi4 optimizes the efficiency of medium and high-speed scenarios through engine direct drive mode, increasing efficiency by 13% to 20% compared to extended range hybrid. This technology system includes five sub versions: Hi4 is dedicated to medium-sized vehicles, Hi4 Performance Edition is dedicated to medium to large vehicles, Hi4-Z is dedicated to off-road vehicles such as Tank 500 (configuration | inquiry), Hi4-Z is dedicated to strong off-road vehicles, and Hi4-G is dedicated to heavy-duty trucks.

For example, Geely Automobile has built a global product matrix through the "technology combination punch" strategy: its hybrid transmission includes both efficient single speed solutions and a three speed transmission system. In order to accurately match the needs of different overseas markets, the latter is further subdivided into two differentiated products.

The reason is that users in the European market have higher requirements for power response and high-speed cruising efficiency, and traditional single speed transmissions are difficult to meet their driving scenarios. The three speed hybrid system, through multi gear adjustment, can achieve dual advantages of low-speed torque amplification and high-speed fuel consumption optimization, which has become Geely's core technological lever for exploring the European market.

Looking ahead to the future development of diversified technology routes, Xu Xiangyang believes that "whether it is plug-in hybrid, extended range, HEV, hybrid itself is a long-term technology route, and it will coexist with pure electric for a long time. In the future, from the perspective of the domestic market, the major trend is for hybrid vehicles (range extender, HEV, PHEV) to account for 40%, pure electric vehicles to account for 40%, and gasoline vehicles to have a market share of 20%. ”

At the same time, he emphasized that pure internal combustion locomotives will not completely disappear. The core of the automotive industry should be low-carbon, and low-carbon and zero carbon fuels can also be used in internal combustion engines, with very low carbon emissions.

The transformation of traditional transmissions depends on three directions

As the global automotive industry accelerates its evolution towards new energy and intelligence, the transmission system, as a key carrier of power transmission, is undergoing profound technological changes. As one of the core components of hybrid systems, the performance of the transmission directly affects the overall power output, energy consumption, and driving experience of the vehicle, and is also facing new opportunities and challenges.

The core of the intelligent revolution in transmission systems lies in control, "said Xu Xiangyang. How to dynamically select the optimal working mode and accurately plan SOC (State of Charge) and energy consumption strategy based on vehicle operating conditions and driving status is the biggest challenge for intelligent transmissions.
Image source: Haosi Power Image source: Haosi Power

In an ideal state, when the vehicle is connected to the navigation system and the travel path is determined, intelligence can be used to transform the macro planning of "starting point to destination" into the micro execution strategy of the hybrid system. For example, plug-in hybrid models need to prioritize the use of pure electric drive in congested urban areas to reduce energy consumption, switch to engine direct drive mode to improve efficiency during high-speed cruising, and activate the joint output of "engine+motor" when climbing or accelerating; The downhill section needs to dynamically adjust the braking energy recovery intensity according to the slope and vehicle speed, achieving a balance between "efficient charging of electricity" and "driving safety".

Therefore, regarding the intelligence of transmissions, Xu Xiangyang mentioned two aspects: firstly, the technical structure of transmission products needs to be further optimized, such as improving efficiency; The second is the intelligent energy management strategy for the transmission, which requires integrating information related to the driver's driving style and habits, and developing personalized energy management strategies for each user to fully leverage the advantages of the hybrid system.

Traditional transmission companies have a good understanding of the composition and products of transmissions, and they have experience in innovation, improving efficiency, optimizing structure, and reducing costs. Regarding the future focus of traditional transmission companies, Xu Xiangyang emphasized that the core of transmission intelligence needs to be comprehensively considered together with hybrid systems, engine electric drive, and even the entire vehicle

For example, in particular, the formulation of energy control strategies requires joint development with vehicle manufacturers and consideration of the entire system in order to achieve optimal matching. Therefore, vehicle manufacturers also need to provide feedback on vehicle usage on big data platforms to transmission companies, open up a large amount of user data, and work together to mine data and find user usage patterns and habits.

How can transmission companies keep up with the times and keep up with the pace of market and technological changes in the future? Xu Xiangyang proposed three directions: firstly, to have the ability of collaborative development of the entire vehicle; Secondly, we need to cultivate talents, including those in intelligence, software development, and intelligent control strategy algorithms; Thirdly, we need to adapt to the development needs of vehicle intelligence and make up for shortcomings in electrification and intelligence.

As a witness and promoter of China's transition from a major automobile country to a strong automobile nation, how does Xu Xiangyang view the current automotive industry?

As stated at the beginning of the article, 'This is both the best and the toughest era.'. So, why did you express such feelings?

Xu Xiangyang stated that looking back at the development of over 70 years, China's automotive industry has made significant progress in technology, talent, capital, manufacturing capabilities, and other aspects. In some areas, it has achieved partial leadership, laying the foundation for the transformation from a major automotive country to a strong automotive nation. The new energy vehicle industry not only has good policies and a huge market, but also car companies are actively expanding overseas markets.

However, in recent years, the automotive industry has experienced negative competition during its development process. The internal competition is severe, and the enterprise is working hard but not making much money, even losing money, and the price war is endless at a glance. This has had a negative impact on the sustained and healthy development of the industry. None of the participants in the automotive industry have had a relatively easy time, with pressure on top companies, let alone start-ups or new energy enterprises.

He believes that the next step is for everyone in the industry to work together to find a good solution, so that the entire industry can have sustainable and healthy development, and help China become a strong automotive country as soon as possible.